Thursday, April 24, 2008

How did Hillary pull it off?


Southwestern and Northeastern Pennsylvania guaranteed Hillary a victory on Tuesday. According to the Scranton Times-Tribune, she had 90,783 votes from the Northeast and 106,062 from suburban Pittsburgh. These votes accounted for 95% of her margin. Of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania, Obama only won Philadelphia, Chester, Montgomery, Dauphin, Lancaster, Centre, and Union counties.


Obama did not dominate in Philadelphia and its suburbs. He lost Bucks County by a 2-1 ratio and Montgomery County by a narrow margin. Overall, he won Philadelphia by 130,000 votes. G. Terry Madonna, a political professor at Franklin and Marshall, said Obama "underperformed in the areas of the state he needed to win."


In the Inquirer today, Thomas Fitzgerald writes that "Obama needed to offset Clinton's strength elsewhere by rolling up big margins in the city and carrying the suburbs - homes to large numbers of the African American, affluent and college-educted Democratic voters who coalesced behind Obama elsewhere."


Ed Rendell attributes Obama's win in Delaware County to its "inner-ring suburbs...(and) significant number of African Americans who voted for a great African-American candidate." Rendell said, "If you're a Democrat in Chester you're a liberal, [or] if anything else a Republican or independent. It has the most liberal of all Democrats."



Obama won in the Main Line communities of Lower Merion, Radnor and Tredyffrin, as well as in Rose Valley and Doylestown. But he lost in the Newtown townships (both the one in Delaware County and the one in Bucks County), and also in Upper and Lower Makefield.

Clinton, meantime, racked up solid majorities in many of the classic, post-World War II suburbs, including Bensalem, Bristol Township, Warminster and Warrington, Upper and Lower Southampton, and Springfield (Delaware County).

In his column today, David Rubin speculates why Obama could have lost Montgomery. Many voters expressed their concern over Obama's stance on Israel. One voter recalled a recent conversation with a woman to Rubin, saying "She was concerned Obama would not protect Israel. I don't know what he could do to assuage that concern, as he has said he would support Israel, is a friend of Israel. I guess it is not enough."
In the Lehigh Valley, meanwhile, Hillary took every city but Easton. Lehigh Valley Democrats gave her 61% of the vote. "2.2 million votes later, small shift for Clinton" The Morning Call.