Friday, March 28, 2008

Casey backs Obama


From the Philly Inquirer:


Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey plans to endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president today in Pittsburgh, sending a message both to the state's primary voters and to undecided superdelegates who might decide the close race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Dan Pfeiffer, deputy communications director for the Obama campaign, confirmed that Casey would announce his support during a rally at the Soldiers and Sailors Military Museum and Memorial and that he would then set out with the Illinois senator on part of a six-day bus trip across the state.


The endorsement comes as something of a surprise. Casey, a deliberative and cautious politician, had been adamant about remaining neutral until after the April 22 primary. He had said he wanted to help unify the party after the intensifying fight between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.


"There are few stronger advocates for working families in Pennsylvania than Sen. Casey," Pfeiffer said.
By coming out for Obama, Casey puts himself at odds with many top state Democrats - including Gov. Rendell, Rep. John P. Murtha and Mayor Nutter - who are campaigning for Clinton.


The endorsement also comes at a crucial time for Obama, who has been trailing Clinton in Pennsylvania polls by double-digit margins but who also has bought at least $1.6 million worth of television advertising statewide in the last week, more than double Clinton's expenditure.
Obama strategists hope that Casey can help their candidate make inroads with the white working-class men who are often referred to as "Casey Democrats." This group identifies with the brand of politics Casey and his late father, a former governor, practiced - liberal on economic issues but supportive of gun rights and opposed to abortion. (Obama favors some gun-control measures and backs abortion rights.)


Obama badly lost the white working-class vote to Clinton in Ohio and Texas on March 4, keeping the outcome of the fight in doubt amid questions about whether he could appeal to a group of voters that has often strayed from the party in presidential elections.
Since then, Obama has been stressing economic issues important to the middle class more often than his calls to reform politics. His campaign's recent TV ads in Pennsylvania also feature blue-collar imagery.


Other state Democrats who support Obama include Reps. Patrick Murphy and Chaka Fattah, and former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel.


Casey sees Obama as an "underdog" in the campaign who sacrificed at the beginning of his career to be a community organizer "in the shadows of the closed steel mills in Chicago," said a source close to Casey who is familiar with the endorsement decision but was not authorized to speak publicly about it.


The source, reached by The Inquirer yesterday, said that Casey was also impressed with how Obama had stood up to the pressures of the campaign, including recent attacks over the racially incendiary remarks of his former pastor.


Casey's decision was also personal, motivated in part by the enthusiasm his four daughters - Elyse, Caroline, Julia and Marena - have expressed for Obama, the source said. "He thinks we shouldn't be deaf to the voices of the next generation."

Thursday, March 27, 2008

WaPo's Ignatius in need of PA economic lessons



In today's Washington Post, David Ignatius warns the Democratic candidates against talking about the "future more as a threat than an as opportunity." Ignatius writes that "such radical pessimism about the U.S. economy is a mistake, at least over the long run -- and there's no state in the country that proves the optimists' case about America better than Pennsylvania."


Ignatius cites his past employment in Pennsylvania in 1976, when he covered the state's collapsing steel industry for the Wall Street Journal. He discusses rising employment in the state:


Employment in Pennsylvania reached an all-time high in January and then fell slightly in February. People here fear that a steep recession may be coming. But as of February, unemployment in the state was just 4.9 percent. Since January 2003, Pennsylvania has added 178,000 new jobs, according to the state government.

Where are all these new jobs coming from? The answer is that as the old rust-belt manufacturing industries sank, Pennsylvania became a platform for innovators in technology, finance and the health industry. What saved the state, above all, was its concentration of great universities, which provided the human capital for growth.

Ignatius fails to mention the state's top private employer: Wal-Mart. The corporate behemoth, according to the state government, is the largest private employer. Only the federal and state governments employ more state residents.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Madonna: Lehigh Valley and Southeast could help Obama take PA


In the Allentown Morning Call, G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young write that Obama has a chance to beat Hillary in Pennsylvania:



He is positioned to emulate Rendell to a greater extent than is generally recognized. Essentially he must win the same 10 counties Rendell won in 2002, while reducing Clinton's margins in her strongholds. Currently he leads in Philly and will likely win there decisively, making the suburbs a major battleground. The Democratic voters there largely mirror the upscale, affluent voters Obama has been attracting nationally: They are the most liberal in the state, strongly oppose the Iraq War, with a low regard for President Bush. For insurance Obama needs to join the Philadelphia suburbs to the two pivotal swing areas, the Lehigh Valley and Southcentral, where the Democrats are moderate to liberal and where he currently polls well against Sen. Clinton. Beyond this, managing turnout will be crucial for him.


According to the Boston Globe, the Obama camp has given up any hope of winning delegates in the state. Their plan is to narrow Hillary's lead in the popular vote:




Obama's campaign has given every indication that he does not expect to win the most delegates when Pennsylvania votes on April 22, due to an overwhelmingly white, working-class electorate that has already given Hillary Clinton a sizable lead in some polls. But Obama's team has put to work an intense registration program designed to achieve a broader strategic goal: limiting the scale of Clinton's win to maintain Obama's national edge in the number of total votes cast in the Democratic primaries.

That contest for total votes, while meaningless in any formal sense, is a key to Clinton's strategy for wooing superdelegates by convincing them that she has the broadest strength among voters.

"In this state right now, his game is about bringing the popular-vote differential down," said Ken Smukler, a Pennsylvania Democratic strategist unaligned with either candidate. "Since Super Tuesday, this game has never been just about pledged delegates."

The Obama campaign's registration program seems to be working, even in deep Hillary country.
From the Hazleton Standard-Speaker:


On the last day of voter registration, Sen. Barack Obama’s supporters had a clear edge over those for his Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, at the Luzerne County Bureau of Elections. Obama supporters brought boxes filled with more than 3,000 voter registration forms to the bureau’s office on North Pennsylvania Avenue in Wilkes-Barre on Monday, while volunteers for Clinton returned several hundred forms, Director of Elections Leonard Piazza said.











Wednesday, March 19, 2008

McCain gives Barletta the cold-shoulder


Senator John McCain has rejected Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta's invitation to come to the city and discuss immigration issues. Jo Black, a scheduling official, said, "I must pass along his regrets as I do not foresee an opportunity to add this event to the calendar." In a letter, Barletta said he was "troubled" by McCain's rejection and hoped he would reconsider.


Last week, Barletta invited the three presidential contenders to visit Hazleton. In the letter, Barletta wrote, "No matter what your position or voting record on illegal immigration, we want you to come to Hazleton and meet with our citizens and talk with our first responders, law enforcement, medical professionals and elected officials.” In the past, Sens. McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama have voiced their opposition to Barletta's controversial anti-illegal immigration city ordinance, which is now being challenged in federal court.


Barletta, whose tough stance on illegal immigration put him in the national spotlight, is now running for Congress in the 11th Congressional District against Rep. Paul Kanjorski.


G. Terry Madonna, of Franklin and Marshall College, told The Citizens Voice earlier this week that, "Coming back once in a while would be a pretty good idea, but (McCain) doesn’t have to live here like the Democrats.”


Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Hillary gaining momentum in latest Quinnipiac Poll




A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Senator Hillary Clinton leading Senator Barack Obama 53-41 percent among primary voters. In a February 27 Quinnipiac poll, Clinton was leading Obama 49-43 percent.
"In this latest survey, the split between black and white voters grows. Clinton has widened her lead among women likely Democratic primary voters and narrowed Obama's lead among men. Subgroup numbers are:
-White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent, compared to 56 - 37 percent February 27.

-Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent, compared to 69 - 23 percent February 27.
-Women back Clinton 59 - 35 percent.
-Men go 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent for Clinton, compared to February 27 when men backed him 50 - 43 percent.
-Obama gets 50 percent of Democrats with a college degree, to Clinton's 45 percent.
-Among voters with no college degree, Clinton leads 57 - 37 percent.
-Voters under 45 back Obama 57 - 39 percent while voters over 45 back Clinton 60 - 34 percent."

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Today's Papers - Pennsylvania Matters

Throughout the state, newspapers provide coverage of last night's Texas and Ohio primaries. With Hillary Clinton's victory in both states, Pennsylvania's April 22 primary counts. Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, tells the Harrisburg Patriot-News that, "Just having that much time in the middle of a campaign that is so unbelievably dynamic with no other game in town for seven weeks - there's nothing like this in modern as well as historic politics." In the Allentown Morning Call, Josh Drobnyk writes that, "Ohio and Pennsylvania have more than a border in common. They share similar demographics and economies. So as the presidential campaigns lay out their strategies in Pennsylvania, they aren't likely to dismiss what voters thought in Ohio."

The Philadelphia Inquirer notes that "not since Jimmy Carter in 1976 have residents in the state had a real voice in a presidential primary." Both the Obama and Clinton campaigns have opened offices in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The Clinton campaign plans to open offices in Scranton, Allentown, State College, Harrisburg, Erie and Johnstown by the end of the week.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, "The delegate math made it unlikely, though not impossible, that Mrs. Clinton could overcome the Obama lead, even with a string of strong showings in Pennsylvania and other subsequent primaries. But by the same token -- as the Clinton campaign has pointed out repeatedly in recent weeks -- neither Democrat was in a position to capture the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone."